Merry Christmas! The models have had slight shifts that produce snowier amounts. Christmas Eve, you can expect a slight coating in the evening. Christmas Day will be warmer and I expect any groundcover in Pittsburgh to melt. Snow starts in late Wednesday day and continues through early Thursday afternoon. There may be periods of rain or ice, but the storm should bring mostly snow, accumulating 6-12″” of snow.
I have not had a chance to spend a lot of time looking at weather this weekend but I expect to see a coating to 3″ over most of SW PA Christmas Eve into early Christmas day. This will be followed by a storm on Wednesday that should bring in the range of 3-6″ of snow for the region, but a shift on the storm track could lead to ice or more rain. Expect some late weekend snow showers, but nothing more than an inch or two.
I saw some very snowy conditions in my travels this weekend and it was absolutely blissful. My family still has snow covering the ground and with a coating here tomorrow to top things off, we are all looking forward to a white Christmas.
The next week continues to grow more complex. Many of you have seen the Winter Weather Advisory that the Pittsburgh NWS put out yesterday. It started with 4-6″, the 3-5″, now it is down to 2-5″. I am sticking with my original call of 1-3″. But, don’t be too disappointed as an early morning Christmas day swatch of snow should bring us additional snow and I think by noon on Christmas day Pittsburgh has 2-5″ of snow on the ground. Considering the low probability Pittsburgh has for a white Christmas based on our history that isn’t too bad. I have 90% confidence that we will see a white Christmas in Pittsburgh this year.
A couple of different scenarios are worthy of your attention later next week. One scenario shows a monster storm, capable of dumping 16-24″ right up the west side of the Appalachian Mountains From Wed-Thur. The second scenario shows a smaller system on Wed and a larger system on Friday, for a total of 12-18″ of snow. My take is that we stand a fairly decent shot at getting a foot or more of snow mid-late next week.
I will do my best to provide updates amidst the holiday festivities. Safe travels if you are on the road this weekend and bundle up!
Expect rain tomorrow through most of the day, turning to snow tomorrow night. Lake Effect snow begins brewing in earnest later Friday afternoon with the heavier bands on Saturday, probably many before you awaken. I am sticking with 1-3″ for the Pittsburgh region but would not be surprised if it turned into a 2-4″ event. Erie, PA and the Laurel Highlands should expect 6-12″ and Cleveland a modest 3-6″. The cold sticks around enough to ensure a white Christmas and the southernmost areas have a slight chance of Christmas day snow, but nothing substantial.
The next newsmaker arrives late next week, around the 27th. Latest modeling shows the potential for several inches of snow and significant cold settling in after that event with subsequent snows. In many ways, early January reminds me of January 2010. We could see daily small amounts of Lake Effect Snow, or at least regular amounts through at least mid-January.
I will post again when there is a stronger idea of the storm for next Thursday or if there is a significant change in the shorter term outlook.
The cold is coming, but delayed by a few days. The system coming through today and tomorrow will, in all likelihood be all rain. The temperatures will cool down after most of the rain has passed but then relax for Wed-Thur. lows will be in the mid 30’s and highs in the mid 40’s.
Thursday afternoon expect rain and crashing temperatures. Thursday night be aware that as the temperatures crash roads and bridges could freeze. The rain will turn to snow over night and accumulation is expected. There is still a degree of uncertainty regarding how much precipitation we can expect but my early thoughts are that we receive somewhere in the 1-3″ range. However, instead of the relaxing temperatures we have been seeing, the cold digs in through Christmas. Lake effect snow is possible over the weekend. There is a parade of storms lining up on the models after Christmas through New Year. This pattern change, though delayed, is a welcome change.
So, will we have a white Christmas? I think so. My confidence level for a white Christmas is about 70%.
Temperatures have remained pretty close to seasonably normal this week but we should start to see a very brief and moderate warm-up this weekend with temperatures rising to the mid 50’s and rain on Sunday. Even though surface temperatures are warm, the upper atmosphere will remain cold enough that it is possible to see sleet on Sunday but the warm surface temperatures will prevent roads and other surfaces from icing over in the Pittsburgh Area. However, in the Twin Tiers of N PA and and S NY the storm will begin as snow, likely transition to freezing rain, and end up as rain. This system will meet up with a coastal system eventually and intensify, bringing heavier snow to the interior of New England.
Tuesday is the day I expect our weather transition to begin in earnest. We have a shot at 1-3″ of snow in Pittsburgh from that event while the Erie area might receive 2-4″ of snow while the Twin Tiers could be up for another 4″ or so.
Another, and perhaps better chance of snow comes later in the week, going into the weekend for us bringing snow to Ohio, deepening as it enters PA. Then, finally, as we approach Christmas we are looking at the the potential for a 3rd snow storm. These last two systems would bring us decent amounts of measurable snow.
The weather models are all over the place right now, making the outlook very difficult. I do think we will have a white Christmas with at least a little snow. It is possible that we will have a very white Christmas, but we will have to wait until later this weekend into early next week to see exactly what it will look like. All that being said, please keep the period between next Friday and Christmas and consideration for weather that could disrupt travel. More people are flying this year for the holidays and for those of us from the Rust belt to the I-95 corridor should consider that roads could be hazardous if this pans out because the roads have not been treated much this winter.
We will continue in our largely boring weather pattern through much of this week, but it is a transition week. You probably already noticed somewhat of a temperature drop. Any snow that the Pittsburgh area receives will likely melt on contact, although a trace coating is possible within the next 24 hours.
There will be a tug of war, of sorts with temperatures, but overall cooler and not nearly ass moderate, closer to normal temperatures this time of year, hovering just above freezing and dropping below freezing at times.
I have previously posted about a mid-month flip of the weather to a colder, snowier pattern. It looks like we will see that start around next Tuesday and I am looking at the possibility of a significant snow event next week around the 18-20th. I think there is an 80% chance of us seeing at least some snow from this storm and right now a 50% chance that it will be significant.
If you go to the a “point and click” forecast or even watch a weather forecast it is unlikely that they will see this flip that I am mentioning. The weather pattern is complex and there are several factors that the American weather model is missing but that the European model is somewhat seeing. The Korean and Japanese are seeing the pattern, however and there are some great climate indicators signaling the cold weather.
I estimate that Pittsburgh has a 75% chance of a white Christmas this year.
The JennCast 