Merry Christmas! Blizzard warnings for Cleveland and Erie have been issued while the upcoming storm starts to move in the plains states today and severe weather has been ravaging the deep south this Christmas Day. The Pittsburgh National Weather Service described out outlook the best:
BREAKING IT DOWN…THE SNOW MIX LINE WILL END UP SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS…EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
OVER THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS THERMAL PROFILES THERE ARE MOST
CONDUCIVE TO ICE.
BY LATE WED EVE…THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE BECOME THE MAIN
FEATURE WITH NO SFC WAVE LEFT INLAND. THE 50H LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN VA AND EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY.
AT THIS POINT…NOT QUITE SURE WHAT TO DO WITH POPS WED NIGHT.
FLOW AROUND THE BACK-EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CAA WILL BE ONGOING. HOWEVER…MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR WILL MOVE IN…WHICH WILL END THE CLOUD SEEDING PROCESS. FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE IN HIGH POPS WED NIGHT…BUT IT MAY END UP BEING
MORE OF A LOW CLOUD/FREEZING DRIZZLE SITUATION.
Right now there is some model variance on amounts, with some models showing as little as 6″ and some showing as much as 12″+. The conservative forecast, therefore, is 6-12″. I will take a look at the models later tonight and then in the AM and issue appropriate updates.