Expect rain tomorrow through most of the day, turning to snow tomorrow night. Lake Effect snow begins brewing in earnest later Friday afternoon with the heavier bands on Saturday, probably many before you awaken. I am sticking with 1-3″ for the Pittsburgh region but would not be surprised if it turned into a 2-4″ event. Erie, PA and the Laurel Highlands should expect 6-12″ and Cleveland a modest 3-6″. The cold sticks around enough to ensure a white Christmas and the southernmost areas have a slight chance of Christmas day snow, but nothing substantial.
The next newsmaker arrives late next week, around the 27th. Latest modeling shows the potential for several inches of snow and significant cold settling in after that event with subsequent snows. In many ways, early January reminds me of January 2010. We could see daily small amounts of Lake Effect Snow, or at least regular amounts through at least mid-January.
I will post again when there is a stronger idea of the storm for next Thursday or if there is a significant change in the shorter term outlook.