Temperatures have remained pretty close to seasonably normal this week but we should start to see a very brief and moderate warm-up this weekend with temperatures rising to the mid 50’s and rain on Sunday. Even though surface temperatures are warm, the upper atmosphere will remain cold enough that it is possible to see sleet on Sunday but the warm surface temperatures will prevent roads and other surfaces from icing over in the Pittsburgh Area. However, in the Twin Tiers of N PA and and S NY the storm will begin as snow, likely transition to freezing rain, and end up as rain. This system will meet up with a coastal system eventually and intensify, bringing heavier snow to the interior of New England.
Tuesday is the day I expect our weather transition to begin in earnest. We have a shot at 1-3″ of snow in Pittsburgh from that event while the Erie area might receive 2-4″ of snow while the Twin Tiers could be up for another 4″ or so.
Another, and perhaps better chance of snow comes later in the week, going into the weekend for us bringing snow to Ohio, deepening as it enters PA. Then, finally, as we approach Christmas we are looking at the the potential for a 3rd snow storm. These last two systems would bring us decent amounts of measurable snow.
The weather models are all over the place right now, making the outlook very difficult. I do think we will have a white Christmas with at least a little snow. It is possible that we will have a very white Christmas, but we will have to wait until later this weekend into early next week to see exactly what it will look like. All that being said, please keep the period between next Friday and Christmas and consideration for weather that could disrupt travel. More people are flying this year for the holidays and for those of us from the Rust belt to the I-95 corridor should consider that roads could be hazardous if this pans out because the roads have not been treated much this winter.