We will continue in our largely boring weather pattern through much of this week, but it is a transition week. You probably already noticed somewhat of a temperature drop. Any snow that the Pittsburgh area receives will likely melt on contact, although a trace coating is possible within the next 24 hours.
There will be a tug of war, of sorts with temperatures, but overall cooler and not nearly ass moderate, closer to normal temperatures this time of year, hovering just above freezing and dropping below freezing at times.
I have previously posted about a mid-month flip of the weather to a colder, snowier pattern. It looks like we will see that start around next Tuesday and I am looking at the possibility of a significant snow event next week around the 18-20th. I think there is an 80% chance of us seeing at least some snow from this storm and right now a 50% chance that it will be significant.
If you go to the a “point and click” forecast or even watch a weather forecast it is unlikely that they will see this flip that I am mentioning. The weather pattern is complex and there are several factors that the American weather model is missing but that the European model is somewhat seeing. The Korean and Japanese are seeing the pattern, however and there are some great climate indicators signaling the cold weather.
I estimate that Pittsburgh has a 75% chance of a white Christmas this year.