2011-2012 Winter Outlook

Although there are some differneces, most meteorologists are calling for heavier snow this winter, particularly along the backside of the Appalachains. Redevelopment of a La Nina is favorable this fall and the storm tracks through the midwest are expected to continue. Accuweather.com’s Henry Margusity issued the below map for his winter outlook. Thestionable and being debated by meteorologists. Those on the East coast face less certainty about their weather outlook. The duration and strength of blocking over Greenland, which creates a negative NAO, resulting in colder temperatures along the coast, is debated by meteorologists. My gut instinct expects it to be colder on the coast than Margusity bargains for thanks to the tanking PDO.

Accuweather's Henry Margusity outlines his ideas for the winter outlook

former Accuweather employee, Joe Bastardi has been touting the colder winter idea for a couple of years based on a cooling PDO. He has seen the cooler Pacific Northwest winter of 2011 as a sign of things to come for the East. Bastardi, now with Weatherbell, has sited an observable cyclic pattern for warming and cooling ingnored by cliamte change alarmists.

From my observation, the increased solar and volcanic activity leads me to believe that we are heading into a colder, snowier winter. I also think cooler temperatures are coming sooner rather than later. We have had some strong thrunderstorms recently, signalling cold air aloft. These storms are coming earlier than they came last year, so I think we are seeing an overall pattern change that will lead to an earlier fall and winter. I hoep it doesn’t foil any of my rocky moutnain photo opps!

Last year we didn’t see flurries until November and our first measurable snow came later, too. I think this winter we could possible see our first flurries in Western PA in late October. Look for cold, wet football games this fall. I, for one, am ready for a cold, snowy winter. Let the festivities begin!


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