Potential for Blockbuster Storm


I am not sure I have ever issued a milk and bread JennCast before, but here it is. We are still a few days out, but I believe that the upcoming storm will be significant. TV meteorologists are often reluctant to issue a forecast for high snow amounts so don’t be surprised if they hold back.


I expect us to receive over a foot of snow. Right now, I have consistently seen a range of 12-16″ on the models, however tonight, there has been some divergence. One model showed a smaller 4-8″ type of storm, but it is an outlier among the models. Another model showed significantly more. Before I commit to more, I want to see it appear on another model run.

We should see light snow Sunday, growing heavier later in the day and continuing overnight. Snow will continue throughout the day, tapering off in the afternoon on Monday. Temperatures will be in the teens for most of the storm and drop blew zero later next week.

Overall, temperatures appear as though they will remain well below normal for much of March.

Try to look on the bright side, some meteorologists believe we should expect a cooler summer, too.

Snow, Snow, Snow

Just a quick update to let you know about a couple of potentially disruptive snow storms…

The mid-week storm will be a sloppy snow, with Sa strong possibility of freezing rain and sleet mixing in and creating traffic difficulties. There will still be accumulating snow, but I think 2-4″ is the most we would get.

The weather models are showing a very strong snowstorm Sunday- Monday that could easily drop 12-18″ of snow. Stay tuned.

A Snowy Week

We are going to start the New Year off right with a little snow and cold, or possibly a lot of snow and cold. Tomorrow, I expect a coating to 2″ of snow is possible for most of us. Looking ahead to Friday, we are likely to see anywhere from a moderate (4″) to a major snow storm, with bitter cold ushered in behind it. I am also watching for the potential of a late weekend to early next week snow event. In case you are wondering, yes, we are above average for snowfall this winter but actually, pretty close to average for temperatures so far.

Snow On the Way

Snow is on the way Monday night Through Tuesday morning. I am going to stick with a 2-4″ general forecast, but don’t be surprised if we end up with a little more.

Unseasonable warmth will make its way to our area next weekend but late Sunday into Monday we are looking at the return of cold for Christmas week. The models are hinting at a rain to snow event to usher in the return of the cold on Dec. 23.

Apart from our early week clipper, it will be a fairly boring weather week. My confidence for a white Christmas has dropped a bit, but remains higher than average at about 75%.

Sneaky Snow Tuesday

A fast-moving system will likely move through the area very early Tuesday morning, causing slick conditions for the morning commute. This is a small system that is likely to catch many people off-guard. I think it is quite possible to see 2-4″ of snow from the system, with the possibility of 3-6″, depending on the track. One model has the system slightly more to our north, giving us the lesser amounts. This should be a light, fluffy snow. I will update either later tonight or tomorrow morning. 

Cold and Snow

The cold will continue to dig in this week and next week before a late week warm up at the end of next week through the weekend of December 21st. That warm-up will give way to bitter cold from the plains early Christmas week. I believe we have about an 80% chance of a white Christmas.

This weekend, temperatures will rise a little on Saturday to bring us closer to freezing but I do not believe, at this point, that the temperatures will go above freezing. Therefore, what ever precipitation we get on Saturday is likely to fall as snow.  Right now, I am putting totals around 3-6″. This will be similar to our last couple of set-ups where the freezing line should be just to the south of Pittsburgh.


Friday Update

There is a great degree of uncertainty, again, about the weather this weekend. Latest weather models suggest an increased expectation of snow. I think we could easily see anywhere from 2-6″ of accumulated snow and sleet by tomorrow night with additional snow on Sunday through Monday bringing totals to 4-8″.

There is still a significant risk of ice in the form of sleet and freezing rain, but latest models suggest a clean change-over from rain to snow. Throughout this morning, we will see very little precipitation as we are in  a dry slot of the overall system. Precipitation should resume this afternoon making the evening rush hour a challenge.


Very Ugly Weather Friday

Friday will bring us pretty much every type of precipitation we see here in Western PA – in one day. We will wake to rain on Friday morning before it turns to freezing rain and sleet around mid-day. I am very concerned about a flash freeze on Friday as cold temperatures invade the area and the changeover to snow occurs. After the change-over, we will see only snow, which will continue throughout the day on Saturday. Depending on when the change over occurs, we could see variable snow totals, even within areas just a few miles apart. In general, I expect about 1-3″ of snow, but 2-4″ is quite possible.

Sunday we continue to see some mixed precipitation but not a significant amount.

Monday is a warmer day, with temperatures moderating. I am expecting mostly rain on Monday before turning to snow. Snow amounts are still in question, but could total several inches. Wednesday and Thursday will be very cold, with temperatures likely to dip to the lower teens and possibly the single digits.

Snow and Cold on the Way

It looks like we should expect some ice before turning to snow on Friday. Accumulations will mostly be in the 2-4″ range. The snow will have some melt off before the cold returns early in the week when we are looking at a much larger threat of snow, when several inches are possible. The larger issue, however, will be the cold. Temperatures will feel more like mid-January than mid-December as we head into mid-month. It is entirely possible that we will see temperatures near zero during this next cold outbreak later next week.