The JennCast

Frozen Flower Storm Update

thejenncast — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 14:28:46 +0000

The likelihood of a significant winter storm remains very high. Western PA and Western NY will take the brunt of this rogue winter storm. The Hydrological Prediction Center, who make probability assessments about weather events that include precipitation, issued this assessment this morning:

The challenge this storm will have to overcome is the difference between ground and upper air temperatures. The upper air temperatures will be plenty cold enough for significant snowfall. The ground temperatures are warm and air temperatures will be right around freezing. Therefore, it will snow a bit before accumulation occurs. However, the actual precipitation shown by the weather models actually exceeds the amount we saw during the 2010 blizzard, but the snow ratios will be much lower and the ground is much warmer.

Yesterday, I put out a map that showed most of us would be in the 8-12″ range. I am sticking with that map, but the lateness of this storm is nearly unprecedented so there is a great amount of uncertainty with this storm. The NWS in Pittsburgh’s forecast discussion expressed similar uncertainty, but warned to be prepared for extended power outages. I strongly suggest the same.

For those of you totally depressed about a late April snowstorm: take comfort: it won’t last long.

The Frozen Flower Snowstorm Update

thejenncast — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 20:56:13 +0000

The NWS in Buffalo and Pittsburgh have issued Winter Storm Watches for our Monday storms and local news outlets should begin forecasting the storm soon, though they are likely to understate the snow totals. Based on the current weather models, I have taken a fairly conservative approach to estimates. If the weather models are showing the same amounts tomorrow, I will increase the totals accordingly.

Wet, heavy, wind-driven snow will creep towards the Mason-Dixon Line in the very early hours on Monday. I expect widespread school cancellations and disruption to travel followed by widespread power outages on Monday throughout the day. Some may be without power for several days so please be prepared and have a back-up for your freezer prepared.

Snowstorm Looking More Likely

thejenncast — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 15:16:49 +0000

All of the major weather models are now in agreement with a snowstorm early next week. Snow should start to fall in the very early morning hours on Monday. It will be wet, heavy, and wind driven and I cannot emphasize enough the likelihood of major power outages from falling limbs.

In the Pittsburgh area, I think we can expect more than 8″ of snow, and many places will see well over 15″ of snow. The areas that will see the most snow include the Laurel Highlands of West Virginia and Western PA up through Central PA, Central NY, and Western NY. I will put a snow map up later today.

Late Snowstorm Advisory

thejenncast — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 05:02:49 +0000

I am monitoring the very real possibility of a late snowstorm starting overnight Sunday into Monday. The weather models show an intense system that could bring strong winds, including blizzard conditions to parts of western PA, Western NY, and northern WV.

The models are still zeroing in on the storm but it is conceivable that we could see amounts in 3-6″ range, with higher amounts in the upper elevations. The combination of wet, heavy snow, wind, and early foliage growth makes the danger of power failures particularly great and damage to property would be expected.

Severe Weather Today

thejenncast — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 14:35:16 +0000

All shaded areas have the risk of tornadoes today!

A reminder to please pay attention to all messages from the NWS today. Hopefully storms will dissipate before they reach our area, but many areas will see widespread devastation today.

Sever Weather Friday – Please be Alert!

thejenncast — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 14:20:41 +0000

Severe Weather JennCast:

March is in like a lion. Areas in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to see storms worse than yesterday’s on Friday. Please take a all thunderstorm and tornado watches and warnings seriously, as the storms could be quite deadly tomorrow.

Watches & Warning

Reminder: A watch means the conditions are right for a storm/tornado, warning, means, a sever storm/tornado has been spotted and you need to seek shelter, immediately. Often, a tornado warning gives you very little notice. Please be aware of changing conditions and be prepared to move quickly to shelter on Friday.

Invisible Snow Fence

thejenncast — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 20:40:00 +0000

The invisible snow fence that has kept primarily below the Maszon-Dixon Line during the 2011=2012 Snowless Winter will stand strong again this weekend. I expect little to no accumulation Sunday in the Pittsburgh area and 3-6″ for Moprgantown. The models shifted and south and it looks like we will get nothing.

Possible Major Snowstorm This Weekend

thejenncast — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 20:49:38 +0000

Relishing the snow yesterday

After our brief warm-up today, temperatures will turn colder again tomorrow and Saturday, with a very brief warm up between Saturday and Sunday before a new cold front bringing snow arrives very early Sunday AM. The weather models are still trying to figure out the scenario, but there is reasonable evidence pointing to a major snowstorm, bringing over a foot of snow. If things go as I see them, I would expect we will be in for somewhere between 12-18″ of snow. I might have to back down on this, because it is possible that the storm could start out as rain or mixed precipitation before turning to snow, but even in such a scenario the snowfall could be significant. I will be surprised if we receive less than 6″ of snow from this storm.

I will issue and update either late tonight or in the morning. I doubt the local weather channels will make much of this before Friday night, at the earliest.

A Little Snow – Updated

thejenncast — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 16:22:09 +0000

Snow will move into the area around midnight tonight and the Pittsburgh area will see 2-3″ of snow by Sunday AM. another round of snow will come through Tuesday depositing around 1-3″. Cold temperatures will persist through at least late next week.

Update:

Models are showing a little more snow and I expect that totals will fall closer to 3-5″ of snow by Sunday AM.

Great Smoky Mountain National Park

Bitter Cold on the Way

thejenncast — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 23:35:24 +0000

Tomorrow will see a little snow in the Pittsburgh area, but I do not expect it to be more than an inch or so. To our south and east, particularly in the mountains, amounts will be closer to 3-6″.

Temperatures will remain colder through the weekend until Sunday when it will turn bitter cold as we begin the week with the coldest temperatures of the winter. Prepare for frozen pipe conditions.

I am also keeping an eye on the possibility of a storm around mid month as the models have consistently shown numerous possibilities for a larger snow storm. I think it would be an understatement to say that we are over-due for snow.