I believe that many areas in Pittsburgh will see right around 6″ of snow fall over the next 36 hours. However, the short-range American weather model is showing colder upper air temperatures, which would produce more snow. If this model is accurate, we will see more snow, perhaps in the 6-12″ range.
As a reminder, this snow is considered “heart attack” type of snow. Use caution when removing the snow. You might want to consider waiting to let it melt. Also, if we do get higher amounts, in the 8-12″ range, we might see power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree branches.
The below normal temperatures will persist as we move into April.
The graphic below is a fairly good representation for how much snow I think our area should receive. Any change to the forecast would likely be increased amounts.
Courtesy of Weathbell Analytics, Dr. Ryan Maue
I have seen more people mad at Punxsutawney Phil this year, than ever! In Ohio, one county is seeking the death penalty for the poor rodent. There will probably be a mob at the door of the Punxsutawney library, where Phil resides, by the end of next week because we have a blockbuster snow storm on the way early next week.
As usual, I am waiting on the models to work out the details, but at minimum, it looks like 3-6″ for the Pittsburgh area, with more in the higher elevations. Some models are showing 8″+ for us in Pittsburgh.
Like the last storm, the concern is the downed power lines that could come with the wet, heavy snow. This storm should begin Sunday night, probably overnight, in our area.
I have taken a fairly conservative approach to the forecast for this storm, however, there is sufficient confidence to increase the amounts around Pittsburgh to 4-8″ with some areas receiving 6-12″. I believe ti will be difficult to measure this storm. Meteorologists take hourly measurements, generally, which is the way this storm should be measured because the surface temperatures on Wed. will be warm enough for some melting. Totals will be highest south of the city.
The NWS continues to express a great deal of uncertainty about the storm and that if with good reason: the models show a fairly notable divergence still.
I want to show you a model that is known to be pretty good in the short range. I am not saying it will happen as this model depicts because other models show less snow, but you should know it is well within the realm of possibility. I have been holding back but I think I we could see 6-12″ in parts of Allegheny County. I am sticking with my 3-6″ for now, but please be don’t be caught off guard by this storm. Expect the snow to be wet and heavy and for Laurel Mountains and other ridges to the south I expect wide-spread power outages. I was in that region last weekend and countless tree branches are severely bent as well numerous trees already down.
Snowy scene in the Laurel Highlands
We have been enjoying an extended snow season this year and I, for one, am grateful. As you may have noticed my weather updates have been lacking over the last couple of months and this was due to business travel and difficulty matching timezones with weather model runs. However, this mid-weeek system caught my attention this weekend. Timing will be critical in determining how much accumulation we receive. If the precipitation starts Tuesday aternoon into early evening we should expect significantly less accumulation. The models are still working out the timing details, but I think it is safe to expect a general 3-6″ for the Pittsburgh region while the Laurel Highlands and ridges around Garrett County, MD and WV could receive in the 1-2′ range.
Business travel has kept me busy and I have not have a lot of time to look at the weather models and probably will not for a little while. It does look cold and snowy, through the rest of January, however. After the bitter cold and snow now, expect more snow over the weekend. It should be a moderate event of a few inches somewhere in the 2-5″ range.
Categories: General, Snow
A quick update: the weather models have shown a nice mix of slop. Snow, ice, and rain can be expected overnight tonight. Tucker and Garrett countied have been issued an ice storm warning. Be safe and don’t go out if you can. Freezing rain is a significant threat given the surface temperatures.
Saturday’s sunrise had some spectacular colors. Those of us who caught this glimpse just before dawn saw the vibrant colors for just a moment.
The cold air is gusting back into the region as I type and the January thaw is done. That isn’t to say that there will not be days above freezing, but temperatures have moderated and will be in our normal range of 20′s and 30′s for this week. Greater consensus continues to build for even greater cold weather later in the month and into February. Some meteorologists believe this will be the coldest weather we have seen since 1994. Others have compared it to 1985.
Morgantown might see some light snow on Tuesday but most of the region will not see snow, again, before next weekend. I am keeping my eye on the weather models for what appears to be a moderate snow event for next sometime between the 18th-21st.
Ohiopyle Sunset, December 2010
I am not looking forward to the weekend. Temperatures will reach around 60 degrees Saturday – yuck. The good news is that the return of winter is just around the corner. However, the cold is going to return next week on schedule. As a matter of fact we go from 60 on Saturday to looking at the possible of snow on Tuesday. The models were showing about 1-3″ today for Tuesday.
Many meteorologists believe that temperatures could be the coldest we have seen in year at the end of January into early February. There have also been many references to January and February of 2010 in terms of the cold. Although there are some early indicators that we will have a snowy pattern ahead, most are reluctant to go so far as to say it will be like 2010 in terms of storms.
Categories: Snow, Winter Weather
Tags: arctic, cold, Pittsburgh, snow, temperatures, unseeasonable, Warm, weather, Western Pennsylvania, winter